{"id":8382,"date":"2016-11-17T10:58:50","date_gmt":"2016-11-17T19:58:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aksalmonalliance.org\/staging1\/?p=8382"},"modified":"2016-11-17T10:58:50","modified_gmt":"2016-11-17T19:58:50","slug":"adfg-2017-sockeye-salmon-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aksalmonalliance.org\/staging1\/2016\/11\/17\/adfg-2017-sockeye-salmon-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"ADFG 2017 Sockeye Salmon Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"

ADFG predicts lowest sockeye salmon harvest in 15 years<\/h1>\n
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By:<\/div>\n
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DJ Summers<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Alaska Journal of Commerce<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Post date:<\/div>\n
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Tue, 11\/15\/2016 – 2:45pm<\/div>\n
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Forecasts for Upper Cook Inlet sockeye salmon have dropped precipitously, just in time for the state\u2019s fishermen to have another beef with Alaska\u2019s fisheries managers in a few months.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn 2017, a run of approximately 4.0 million sockeye salmon is forecasted to return to UCI with a commercial harvest of 1.7 million,\u201d reads an Alaska Department of Fish and Game release. \u201cThe forecasted commercial harvest in 2017 is 1.2 million less than the 20-year average harvest.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Upper Cook Inlet sockeye salmon harvest of 2.4 million, which was 17 percent less than the recent 10-year average, fetched an ex-vessel price of $1.50 per pound for a total value of $21 million.<\/p>\n

With an average weight of 5.8 pounds per fish, 1.2 million sockeye are worth $10.4 million in 2016 prices.<\/p>\n

For commercial Upper Cook Inlet sockeye fishermen, the forecast plays into a long-standing management feud the Alaska Board of Fisheries will have to pick up at the beginning of 2017, largely concerning whether or not management policies have been harming the sockeye stocks \u2014 and fishermen \u2014 by allowing too many to escape to their spawning ground.<\/p>\n

Managers predict the overall size of the expected run, then chip away how many spawning fish they need to send back up the river, then divide the rest between commercial, sport fishing, subsistence and personal use fisheries.<\/p>\n

For all users, the forecast is 2.6 million fish, about 21 percent below average and among the lower third of harvest forecasts going back to 1985. Eight of the last 27 years have had forecasts as low or lower.<\/p>\n

The commercial harvest expectation is 1.7 million. If the fleet harvests that much, it will be the lowest harvest since 2000 and 1998, when Cook Inlet fishermen harvested 1.3 million and 1.2 million sockeye, respectively.<\/p>\n

Prior to that, the harvest hadn\u2019t dipped below 1.7 million fish since 1981.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s gonna be pretty tricky,\u201d said Aaron Dupuis, the assistant area management biologist for the commercial section of the Upper Cook Inlet ADFG office. \u201cThings will be much more restrictive.\u201d<\/p>\n

This small of a forecast triggers the most tightly controlled management tiers. Sockeye setnetters will only have 24 hours to fish in addition to their normal Monday and Thursday 12-hour openings. Drift netters will have to stay within certain sections, instead of fishing in the middle of Cook Inlet.<\/p>\n

Commercial fishermen aren\u2019t happy with the forecast.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s pretty alarming,\u201d said Andy Hall, a sockeye setnetter and president of the Kenai Peninsula Fishermen\u2019s Coalition. Hall said he can\u2019t remember off the top of his head the last time a season forecast gave his fleet so little. \u201cI had a couple fishermen write to me and say they\u2019re alarmed. It\u2019s going to color how we respond to some of the proposals that go to the Board of Fisheries this year.\u201d<\/p>\n

ADFG biologists acknowledge that high escapements might be a part of the low forecast, but say the situation is still too complex and murky to know for certain.<\/p>\n

\u201cYeah, it\u2019s possible (that overescapement led to a small forecast),\u201d said Dupois. \u201cWe won\u2019t really know until we have complete brood information for the most recent escapements. It\u2019s definitely a possibility.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pat Shields, the commercial fishing management biologist for the Kenai area ADFG office, went into more detail about the causes of next year\u2019s small forecast.<\/p>\n

Large escapements, he said, tend to produce smaller fry \u2014 the baby salmon waiting in river systems to swim out into the ocean to grow up. If fry survival drops, it could intensify low returns.<\/p>\n

Due to copyright law, the Alaska Salmon Alliance cannot repost full articles. You can read the whole article<\/i> here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ADFG predicts lowest sockeye salmon harvest in 15 years By: DJ Summers Alaska Journal of Commerce Post date: Tue, 11\/15\/2016 – 2:45pm Forecasts for Upper Cook Inlet sockeye salmon have dropped precipitously, just in time for the state\u2019s fishermen to have another beef with Alaska\u2019s fisheries managers in a few months. \u201cIn 2017, a run […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8382","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-articles"],"yoast_head":"\nADFG 2017 Sockeye Salmon Forecast - Alaska Salmon Alliance<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aksalmonalliance.org\/staging1\/2016\/11\/17\/adfg-2017-sockeye-salmon-forecast\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ADFG 2017 Sockeye Salmon Forecast - 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